Final Election Poll Shows Tight Race For Government

A Narrowing Gap In The Final Stretch

With only four days remaining until polling day, the latest 1News Verian poll suggests an incredibly tight race for the next government. Both Labour and National have seen slight increases in support, while the coalition partners ACT and NZ First have experienced a dip. Christopher Luxon’s National party currently stands at 30%, up one point, while Chris Hipkins’ Labour party has risen two points to 29%. The Greens have also seen a small increase, moving up to 16%.

This shift in support has created a scenario where no single bloc holds a clear path to a majority. The right-wing bloc, consisting of National and its partners, would currently hold 58 seats if these results were repeated. This is a decrease from 61 seats in the previous poll, meaning they are now three seats short of a majority in a 121-seat Parliament. If the Parliament grows to 125 seats due to the performance of Te Pāti Māori, the right bloc would be five seats short of the 63 needed to govern.

The Role Of The Balance Of Power

The Opportunity party currently holds a steady 6% of support, which would translate to seven seats. Because neither the left nor the right bloc has enough numbers to govern alone, Opportunity appears to be on course to hold the keys to the next government. Both sides would likely need the backing of Opportunity to form a stable majority.

For the left bloc—comprising Labour, the Greens, and Te Pāti Māori—the numbers are promising. In a 125-seat Parliament, they would hold 60 seats. Adding Opportunity’s seven seats would bring them to 67, which is four more than the required 63. Even in a smaller 121-seat Parliament, the left bloc’s 56 seats combined with Opportunity’s seven would reach 63, surpassing the 61 needed for a majority.

Leadership And Voter Sentiment

In the preferred prime minister rankings, Christopher Luxon remains the top choice at 23%, though this is a one-point drop from his previous high. Chris Hipkins has closed the gap, rising one point to 19%. Other leaders saw slight shifts, with Chlöe Swarbrick rising to 8%, while Winston Peters and David Seymour both dropped one point to 6% and 5%, respectively.

Reactions from party leaders have been varied. Christopher Luxon emphasized the importance of sticking to the plan until the final hour, asserting that the only poll that truly matters is the one on Saturday. Chris Hipkins expressed optimism, claiming that Labour has developed real momentum in the final weeks of the campaign.

Meanwhile, the leaders of the smaller parties have taken different approaches. Qiulae Wong of the Opportunity party noted that higher support would provide more leverage during negotiations, stating that her party would first speak with the party that secures the most seats. David Seymour urged voters to support ACT to ensure the coalition is re-elected, while Winston Peters dismissed the poll results entirely, labeling the research as having no value.

Economic Outlook And Potential Twists

Beyond party politics, there is a growing sense of economic optimism among the electorate. Nearly half of the voters, 49%, now expect the economy to improve over the next 12 months. This represents a three-point increase and the highest level of optimism seen since 2020, while pessimism remains steady at 22%.

One remaining wildcard is the possibility of an overhang. This occurs if National candidates win more electorate seats than their party vote percentage entitles them to. If National secures significantly more electorates, the size of Parliament would grow to accommodate them. In a 121-seat scenario, National would need approximately five or six extra electorate seats to block the left bloc’s potential path to power through a deal with Opportunity. With undecided voters falling to 9%, the final result remains a cliffhanger.