Impact Of U.S. Midterm Results On Canada Trade Relations

The Influence Of Midterm Elections On Trade

As American voters prepare for the midterm elections, observers in Ottawa are closely monitoring the potential outcomes. The primary concern centers on the ongoing trade tensions and economic pressures facing Canada. Since beginning a second term in January 2025, the U.S. administration has intensified economic attacks against its northern neighbor, leading to a climate of uncertainty regarding trade stability and the future of bilateral relations.

Democratic candidates have integrated these trade disputes into their campaigns, linking tariff policies to affordability issues for American consumers. Some political analysts note that Canada has become a more prominent election issue this year because the current administration has adopted a more antagonistic stance toward the country. Candidates in states like Michigan and Maine, including Abdul El-Sayed and Troy Jackson, have argued that picking fights with Canada leads to higher costs for the American public, framing the trade war as a burden on domestic consumers.

The Role Of Executive Power In Tariffs

Despite the potential for a Democratic surge in the House of Representatives and the Senate, experts suggest that the trade situation for Canada is unlikely to change significantly. A key reason for this is the method used to implement the current tariffs. The Section 232 sectoral tariffs on aluminum, steel, and autos, as well as the broad 50 per cent Section 338 tariffs, were established via executive order rather than through legislative action in Congress.

By utilizing tools such as the Trade Act of 1930 and the Trade Expansion Act, the administration has successfully bypassed the legislative process. Because these actions are rooted in executive authority, a change in the party controlling Congress does not automatically revoke these orders. While Congress must approve new treaties, it has limited power to curb the use of executive orders to impose tariffs. This allows the administration to operate effectively outside of the lawmaking process, using the stroke of a pen to declare national security matters or emergencies to justify economic measures.

Legislative Hurdles And Political Checks

If Democrats were to win both chambers of Congress, the administration has signaled a more confrontational approach to executing its agenda. The president has indicated a willingness to use the veto power frequently to block legislation he opposes, stating he will become “Mr. Veto.” To override such a veto, Democrats would need a two-thirds supermajority in both the House and the Senate, a threshold that analysts consider unlikely even in the event of a total sweep.

Beyond the legislative gridlock, a Democratic-controlled Congress would gain the ability to launch investigations and issue subpoenas to administration associates, including family members and business partners. This shift in power would allow for greater oversight and the ability to challenge specific policies through formal inquiries. However, these actions are often viewed more as optical victories than immediate policy reversals, as the legislative agenda could remain paralyzed while the executive branch continues to function independently.

Impeachment As A Potential Tool

One of the most significant tools available to a Democratic-led Congress is the power of impeachment. Given the history of the current administration, which faced two impeachments during its first term—one in 2019 for abuse of power and obstruction, and another in 2021 for inciting an insurrection—the possibility remains on the table. This tool represents a major check on power, though its effectiveness in removing a leader from office is not guaranteed.

Political scientists warn that impeachment does not guarantee removal from office. Even if the House initiates the process, the high bar for conviction in the Senate makes removal difficult. Consequently, while a change in congressional leadership provides more checks and balances, the immediate economic pressure on Canada may persist. The court system remains one of the few consistent checks on executive power, as many administration actions, such as challenges to birthright citizenship, continue to be fought in legal venues. For Canada, the midterms may shift the political atmosphere in Washington, but the structural ability of the executive branch to dictate trade terms remains largely intact.